The UAE is not just recovering — it’s accelerating. The Central Bank of the UAE confirmed that real GDP grew at 5.6 percent in 2025 and is projected to expand at the same pace in 2026, driven by the growing contribution of non-oil sectors and the success of economic diversification strategies.
That consistency is significant. Matching a 5.6 percent growth rate back-to-back signals structural strength, not a one-off boom.
Beyond Oil
Growth in 2026 is expected to be driven primarily by non-hydrocarbon sectors — particularly financial and insurance services, manufacturing, and construction — alongside a rebound in hydrocarbon GDP following the most recent OPEC+ quota increase.
Trade numbers reinforce this story. The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade during the first nine months of 2025 rose 24.6 percent year-on-year to Dh2,530 billion, with non-oil exports and re-exports climbing 45 percent and 13 percent respectively.
Regional Leader
The forecast positions the UAE to outpace the GCC average of 4.8 percent in 2026, ranking it second in the region behind Qatar. Meanwhile, the UAE government’s consolidated net asset position is estimated to reach around 184 percent of GDP in 2026 — placing it among the strongest sovereign balance sheets globally.
Tourism & Real Estate Holding Strong
Hotel establishments hosted 23.3 million guests in the first nine months of 2025, a 4.9 percent increase, while more than 108 million passengers transited through UAE airports in the same period. Residential real estate sales in Abu Dhabi and Dubai are estimated to have jumped 22 percent.
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