Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) remains firmly on course with its $150 billion five-year capital expenditure programme, even as regional tensions continue to reshape global energy markets, according to the company’s Managing Director and Group CEO, Dr Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber.
Speaking with the Atlantic Council this week, Dr Al Jaber outlined ADNOC’s strategy to strengthen energy supply infrastructure, diversify export routes and expand its global investment footprint across sectors well beyond oil and gas.
The Strait of Hormuz: An “Everything Story”
Dr Al Jaber drew sharp attention to the vulnerabilities of global supply chains that run through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it far more than an energy issue. The waterway, he argued, is the backbone of modern commerce — carrying liquefied natural gas, fertiliser, aluminium, critical minerals, consumer goods and aviation fuel. Fuel prices are reportedly up 30 percent, fertiliser costs have risen 50 percent and airfares have climbed 25 percent since the current conflict began, with around 80 countries having implemented emergency economic measures.
In response, ADNOC has been accelerating construction of a second pipeline designed to double export capacity through Fujairah Port, bypassing the Strait entirely. The pipeline is currently 50 percent complete and is targeted for delivery by 2027.
Underinvestment Is the Core Risk
Dr Al Jaber identified chronic underinvestment in upstream energy as a structural threat to global stability. Upstream investment is currently around $400 billion annually — barely enough to offset natural production decline rates — while global spare capacity sits at roughly 3 million barrels per day, well below the 5 million barrels needed for adequate buffer. Strategic oil reserves stand at just 30–35 days of effective cover.
UAE Exits OPEC, Eyes Greater Strategic Flexibility
The UAE’s decision in late April to exit OPEC was framed by Dr Al Jaber as a deliberate and forward-looking move — one made with “clarity, conviction and confidence” — to give the country greater flexibility to invest, grow and partner internationally. With global oil demand expected to remain above 100 million barrels per day into the 2040s, ADNOC is positioning itself to supply more low-cost, low-carbon barrels to customers worldwide.
ADNOC is also diversifying its global investments into AI infrastructure, data centres, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and critical minerals. UAE investments in the United States alone now exceed $1 trillion, with ADNOC, XRG, and Masdar holding more than $85 billion across 19 US states.
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