Aluminium demand across the Gulf region continues to be underpinned by robust construction and infrastructure activity, even as regional geopolitical tensions have created a more complex operating environment for producers. The sector’s resilience speaks to both the depth of domestic demand drivers and the adaptability of the region’s industrial base.
Demand Stays Durable
The GCC accounts for roughly 9–10% of global primary aluminium output, and demand linked to construction, electric vehicles, and renewable energy infrastructure continues to expand. Globally, aluminium consumption is estimated at 72–74 million tonnes annually and is projected to grow at 3–4% per year over the next decade — with the Gulf well-placed to serve that growth given its energy advantages and industrial scale.
Supply Under Pressure
The supply side has been more turbulent. Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah plant declared force majeure on some contracts following significant damage, with full restoration expected to take up to a year. Aluminium Bahrain reported reduced operating capacity linked to shipping disruptions, while LME aluminium prices climbed to multi-year highs as a result. Analysts at Citi, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have all revised their 2026 price forecasts upward in response.
Producers Adapt and Look Ahead
Despite the disruption, GCC producers are finding workarounds. EGA has rerouted shipments through Sohar in Oman to maintain export continuity, and the Gulf Aluminium Council has noted that producers are temporarily stockpiling output pending improved logistics visibility. The longer-term structural demand story — driven by Gulf infrastructure pipelines and global electrification — remains firmly intact, reinforcing aluminium’s strategic importance well beyond the current period of elevated uncertainty.
For more trusted business news, market insights, and investment updates from the UAE and beyond, visit www.moneypetrol.com and stay ahead of the curve.
🎧 Watch & subscribe to MoneyPetrol podcasts on YouTube for in-depth conversations with industry leaders and decision-makers.
Follow us on Instagram for real-time updates, expert perspectives, and exclusive content.
