Gold has always held a special place in the UAE, not only as a safe-haven asset but also as a key driver of retail trade in Dubai and across the Emirates. Currently, the price of 24-carat gold in the UAE hovers around AED 405–407 per gram, while 22-carat trades near AED 375–377. This level is about 10–12% below the AED 450 mark, raising the question of whether prices will climb that high in the near future.
Global gold prices have been volatile, largely influenced by interest rate decisions in the United States, the strength of the dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts note that whenever economic risks rise, demand for gold strengthens as investors move toward safe assets. However, recent forecasts from major financial houses such as Fitch Ratings and Citi point to a softer outlook. Data from Fitch ratings expects gold to average around USD 2,000 per ounce in 2025, while Citi projects prices could ease toward USD 2,800–3,000 per ounce in the coming year. When converted to UAE retail terms, these forecasts translate to a range of roughly AED 330–380 per gram, which is well below the AED 450 level.
In the local context, UAE retailers are seeing strong seasonal demand, especially during festive periods and tourist inflows. Dubai’s gold souk and major jewelry outlets continue to benefit from the city’s reputation as a global gold trading hub. Yet, while demand may support stable prices, it is unlikely to create a surge large enough to push retail rates beyond AED 450 per gram in the short term. Local forecasting sites also suggest that over the next six months, prices could even soften slightly, with 24K expected around AED 380 and 22K near AED 353.
That said, gold has a history of surprising markets, particularly during crises. A sharp escalation in global conflicts, unexpected central bank moves, or a significant drop in global growth could trigger safe-haven buying and push prices higher. If such an event were to occur, the AED 450 threshold could be tested, but this would likely be linked to extraordinary external factors rather than the UAE market itself.
In reality, based on current forecasts and trading patterns, gold in the UAE is not expected to cross AED 450 per gram in the immediate future. Prices are more likely to remain within the AED 370–410 band through the rest of 2025. For UAE consumers, this stability may actually be positive, as it sustains affordability while ensuring steady demand in the retail jewelry market. For investors, however, the path to AED 450 seems distant unless global economic shocks significantly alter the gold outlook.
* The above forecast is based on research done with some jewelers in Dubai and may not be a real scenario to stress the gold buyers.
